ALLIGATORS IN A HELICOPTER

a pro script reader ponders movies, reading, writing and the occasional personal flashback

Friday, April 06, 2007

Weekend Boxoffice #26

Four fairly-wide releases this weekend, all in between 2600 and 2900 theaters.

GRINDHOUSE (2624 theaters). This should be the big dog, but it's going to be hamstrung by its length -- each movie is about 85 minutes, plus fake trailers in between, and you're looking at 3 hours, which is really going to cut down the number of showings. Still, I think there's a wanna-see factor here, and I think it'll do around $22.4 million.

THE REAPING (2603 theaters). It's been a while since one of these Biblical horror-thrillers has been particularly good, but this one is supposed to be okay. Kind of strange to release it on Easter weekend, and it's going to lose a chunk of its audience to Grindhouse, but it should be good for $11.7 million.

ARE WE DONE YET? (2877 theaters). They keep trying to make Ice Cube cuddlier and cuddlier, but I'm not sure anyone is on the edge of their seat for this sequel. Still, $8.9 million.

FIREHOUSE DOG (2860 theaters). The little kids need to see something. $6.2 million.

So figure the weekend best will be:

Grindhouse $22.4
Blades of Glory $19.3
Meet the Robinsons $16.0
The Reaping $11.7
Are We Done Yet $8.9
300 $7.1
Firehouse Dog $6.2

Make your guess, tell me where I'm nuts, or both.

Also, anyone who sees Grindhouse this weekend, post your general impressions in the comments. No spoilers -- just whether or not it's worth seeing, whether it delivers what it wants to.

13 Comments:

At 10:59 AM, Anonymous Matt said...

I thought Blades of Glory was pretty bad, but I think it will take number 1 again. Simply because of Grindhouse's length. I'm not sure, but with the real trailers, the films, and the fake trailers I think it's clocking in at three and a half hours. My local theatre has two prints, and only six showtimes.

 
At 11:09 AM, Blogger Emily Blake said...

I would go with Grindhouse but I'm always wrong.

My thinking, though, is that I want to see Grindhouse. I never watch movies like that, so if I'm interested then so must be a lot of other people.

But I'm always wrong, so it'll probably be Firehouse Dog.

 
At 12:46 PM, Anonymous Phillip said...

It won't be numero uno but I think The Reaping will do 20+.

 
At 1:13 PM, Blogger shecanfilmit said...

Unlike Matt, I thought Blades of Glory was pretty good, for what it was, and I think it'll take top spot because of Grindhouse's gritty nature (and length). You can take grandma and the teens to Blades of Glory, but you can't take them to Grindhouse. And it's a family weekend.

 
At 1:41 PM, Anonymous Matt said...

Jon Heder ruined the movie for me. Will Ferrell was really funny I thought, but Heder looked like a lost puppy out there. I just don't find him amusing at all. Put Owen Wilson (first name that came to mind) in his place and it would've been better.

 
At 7:40 PM, Blogger ECHenry said...

Went and saw "Grindhouse" this afternoon. Very few people in the theater. "Grindhouse" is long, kinda gross, its 70's feel gets old real quick, and it's not very entertaining -- all things considered. Kurt Russell shines, however. He's gotta get back on the bull and start getting more leading rolls again.

My guess, is this movie is gunna be a dud -- especially once word-of-mouth get arround.

Still, can't wait for May to roll arround. "Spiderman 3"...

- E.C. Henry fron Bonney Lake, WA

 
At 12:42 PM, Blogger Scott the Reader said...

Grindhouse was 4th on Friday, behind Blades of Glory, Meet The Robinsons and Are We Done Yet. Not very impressive.

 
At 1:58 PM, Anonymous Matt said...

If they expected more, I can't imagine why. Most of the reviews I've read have been positive. I loved the movie, and the crowd I was with (about thirty to forty) were very into the movie. But three showtimes per day per print just isn't going to make you tons of money. Plus, you can throw out younger kids going to see it. Most older people have zero interest in this type of fair.
But in the end, no matter how much money it makes, Tarantino and Rodriguez have more guts, and bring more excitement, then most filmmakers.
This DVD will probably sell a ton.

 
At 4:28 PM, Blogger Scott the Reader said...

Thirty to forty people, or is that the age range?

 
At 5:16 PM, Blogger Patrick J. Rodio said...

Guess there won't be a Grindhouse 2. It's looking like:

Blades: 23 mil
Robinsons: 17 mil
Are We? 14 mil
Grind - 12 mil
Reap - 10 mil
Firehouse Dawg - 5

 
At 2:06 AM, Anonymous Matt said...

Oh, sorry, thirty to forty people. By the way Scott, I have about twenty different blogs on my favorites list but yours is the best.
Patrick,

Probably not, but I hope they go ahead and make those fake trailers into movies. They were incredibly funny and in really bad taste, which I love.

 
At 11:34 PM, Anonymous Joe Valdez said...

I saw Grindhouse Saturday night. The house was probably 40-45% full. A couple of guys who knew what they were seeing were laughing along, myself included.

As "Planet Terror" was winding down, about a dozen people got up and left. Either they didn't realize there was another movie here, or they didn't care. Either way, I think it explains why this grossed $11 million opening weekend.

As for the film, it's the best I've seen in a long, long time. The critic who said that Grindhouse makes you excited about movies again nailed it. At least it did for me. "Planet Terror" was the best thing I've seen Robert Rodriguez do since El Mariachi, not only creative, but funny, exciting and well written.

The trailers were not that great, but they were mercifully short.

Quentin Tarantino's film "Death Proof" confirms that he's the best screenwriter working today, and one of the top twelve or so directors. This could have gone in about ten different directions, and I was expecting some kind of clever send-up of Friday the 13th. No way. He truly made something that I have never seen before, a character driven, white knuckled, cool as hell female empowerment flick.

 
At 8:14 AM, Anonymous Earl Newton said...

Grindhouse was one of the better movie theater experiences I've had. Screaming, catcalls, random bursts of applause - felt like watching Shakespeare with the groundlings.

I really feel that if the the theaters and the distributors will ride it out, there'll be money to be made on this. The challenge is the length - you limit the number of screenings, and the only way you can make money is by letting it ride on the box office for awhile.

What would excite me - and this may be projecting or assuming too much - is if Grindhouse becomes the antithesis to Star Wars and Jaws - the anti-blockbuster. A film that makes its money back over a longer period of time. It might never hit number one, but if it can provide a long steady draw, it's still a financial success, and it might reeducate Hollywood to accept the possibility of a sleeper hit.

Of course, we all know that the longer the film stays in the theaters, the more the profit percentage shifts to the movie houses, so that's another point against it.

I'll be interested to see the profit-per-theater numbers - that'll be the real test of this film's strength.

 

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