ALLIGATORS IN A HELICOPTER

a pro script reader ponders movies, reading, writing and the occasional personal flashback

Friday, December 08, 2006

Weekend Boxoffice #11

So there's a diverse quartet of movies opening this weekend, in one of the hardest weekends to predict this year.

UNACCOMPANIED MINORS (2775 screens). On the one hand, it sort of has a Home Alone vibe, but I don't think they've done a particularly good job in selling it; I have no sense of the individual characters, much less the plot, other than "kids running wild at an airport". That might be enough. Call it $13.7 million.

THE HOLIDAY (2610 screens). I think this movie will do well; it has a good cast, and it has a fun vibe that most of the movies out there for adult audiences lack. $19.4 million.

APOCALYPTO (2465 screens). This is actually supposed to be good, but the problem is that it looks like a history lesson, and apparently it's more of an action tale -- essentially an extended foot chase as a man tries to get back to his family. So though it may entertain males 14-24, I don't see them actually seeking it out, while I think Mel's name is death. $6.1 million.

BLOOD DIAMOND (1910 screens). This is supposed to be very good, but it also looks like a tough sell. Still, I can see most people choosing this over Apocalypto. $12.7 million.

Predictions:

The Holiday $19.4 million
Unaccompanied Minors $13.7 million
Happy Feet $13.5 million
Blood Diamond $12.7 million
Casino Royale $11.5 million
Deja Vu $7.5 million
Apocalypto $6.1 million

Feel free to weigh in with your thoughts...

18 Comments:

At 9:51 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I hope apocalypto crashes and burns.

I think blood diamond will surprise at BO...my guess 16 mill.

- Allen

 
At 10:25 AM, Blogger Bill Cunningham said...

Unaccompanied Minors will be #1 this weekend. It's an easy sell for the holiday season.

 
At 10:31 AM, Blogger Emily Blake said...

I'm not trying to predict any numbers because I suck at it, but I think Apocalypto will have a surprisingly successful run. Several of my students are planning to go see it and I find them surprisingly good barometers of what plays well in theaters.

 
At 10:38 AM, Anonymous Joe Unidos said...

I never get the numbers right, but I will predict that Blood Diamond and The Holiday underperform considerably. Ten-ish each, tops.

 
At 11:30 AM, Anonymous Laura Reyna said...

From the one commercial i've seen, The Holiday looks so not-funny & so not-charming.

... & i like all the actors in that... yes, even Jack.

I'm also bad at predicting numbers, so i don't even try.

 
At 12:35 PM, Blogger shecanfilmit said...

My friend saw Blood Diamond at a screening and said it was well done... Leonardo has been on all of the morning shows. It might do better than you'd expect from the subject matter because of those two factors.

I personally am excited about The Holiday. Somebody made Jack Black (my last ex looks *just* like him) a rom com lead instead of a jokester, and I appreciate that.

 
At 2:41 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I hope Apocalypto is a huge hit. It looks interesting, and exciting. I guess we'll see, but I don't think Mel's name is death. Roman Polanski still has a career right? In my mind having sex with an underage girl is worse than the rantings of a drunk man. I hear great things about Blood Diamond, but don't think it will appeal to that many people. If Unaccompanied Minors is number one, I will have a long good cry.

 
At 2:43 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think you're underestimating Apocalypto and Blood Diamond.

I don't think Mel Gibson's name will have any adverse effects on the BO. Americans love a nutcase and he has a history of delivering big business.

I think Apocalypto will take it down this week.

 
At 4:28 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I was shocked when I learned what Mel said earlier this year. Because it was contrary to the laws of everything I stand for - except for the reference to "Sugar T*ts".

But after his public apology - I'm willing to judge him as a storyteller.

If he's created a story with some redemptive kernel of truth in. I'll buy some popcorn and check it out.

 
At 6:16 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Jack Black in a romantic comedy? What? I really enjoyed Something's Gotta Give and What Women Want, so I'll see it.
Apocolypto is supposed to be a gore fest, so I'll skip it...plus, I secretly hope the BO holds Mel accountable for spewing racist remarks, but it probably wont...not a ton of accountability in our country these days!

 
At 10:23 PM, Blogger Patrick J. Rodio said...

Tough call.

The Holiday - 19.5
Apocalypto - 17
Blood Diamond - 12
Happy Feet - 11
Royale - 9
Minors - 8

 
At 11:10 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Reyna, apparently it's all of those things...

- Allen

 
At 12:32 PM, Blogger Scott the Reader said...

Well, I'm very wrong. Apocalypto was the number 1 movie on Friday, talking in almost $5 million, almost twice as much as Blood Diamond. The Holiday did about $4.4 million.

 
At 9:15 PM, Blogger Peter said...

I have not a clue and its late in the game. I'm sitting this one out.

Good luck to the participants.

 
At 11:16 AM, Blogger Scott the Reader said...

Official weekend estimates:

Apocalypto $14.2 million
The Holiday $13.5 million
Happy Feet $12.7 million
Casino Royale $8.8 million
Blood Diamond $8.5 million
Unaccompanied Minors $6.2 million
Deja Vu $6.1 million

So I suck.

This weekend last year, The Chronicles of Narnia made $65 million -- more than the top 6 movies this weekend combined.

 
At 3:55 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

it's a real tragedy that people are paying money to see anything with mel gibson's name on it. the guy's scum.

- Allen

 
At 7:25 PM, Anonymous keith said...

Scott, are you ever even close?

 
At 10:03 PM, Blogger Scott the Reader said...

Hey, I'm usually at least ballpark.

Mostly.

 

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