a pro script reader ponders movies, reading, writing and the occasional personal flashback

Thursday, November 30, 2006

Weekend Boxoffice #10

Slim pickings among new wide releases this week:

THE NATIVITY STORY (3183 screens). Anyone's guess. It's getting rather bad reviews, but the devout will likely go see it. This movie's performance is actually going to be important; if it makes a lot of money despite bad reviews, the religious films will keep flowing. If it tanks, then at least maybe people will take more care in making good religious movies. Call it $15.3 million.

NATIONAL LAMPOON'S VAN WILDER: THE RISE OF TAJ (1979 screens). This smells like straight to video, so I'm not sure why it is getting such a wide release; who knows, maybe it's actually funny. No, probably not. $1.8 million.

TURISTAS (1570 screens). I read a version of this a while ago, and it wasn't terrible. Still, it looks sort of generic. $5.4 million.

Expect older movies to hold over well. Call the top four:

Happy Feet $20.1 million
Casino Royale $17.8 million
The Nativity Story $15.3 million
Deja Vu $13.1 million.


At 7:07 PM, Blogger Naila J. said...

I actually saw the Nativity story tonight and it's quite good! Not too Christianized - even though it's told from that perspective. And not cheesy either.

I think it could definitely be a big winner this weekend!

At 9:53 PM, Blogger Peter said...

I can't really argue the carry over numbers for HF and CR and DVu.

HF has legs and I think it will start getting the kids back for the review and parents will oblige. I think it has a while to run before they pull it. Maybe even through Christmas. Who knows?

The Nativity might do better - them Christians are revving up for the holidays. 17.5 mill

Nat'l Lampoon Van Wilder - maybe 2.1 mill

Turista - guessing - 3.6 mill

The Nativity could be a sleeper (if so, I gotta get out ad dust off that old family bible)

At 5:41 AM, Blogger Thomas Crymes said...

At the Austin Screenwriter's Conference I attended an "Up Close and Personal" with Mike Rich who wrote it.

One of the things that Mike said that was surprising was that when they tested Nativity Story, they tested on Christians and Non-Christians in separate screenings.

According to him, the scores from both groups came back nearly equal (they equally praised the movie).

I'm always interested in taking ancient stories and making them seem real.

At 10:02 AM, Blogger Scott the Reader said...

Right now, Rotten Tomatoes has the movie at 26% -- 7 good reviews, and 20 bad ones.

The core audience likely won't care, but bad reviews will scare off some people.

At 4:54 PM, Blogger Patrick J. Rodio said...

#1. Casino Royale - 17
#2. Happy Ass - 16
#3. Nativity Story - 11
#4. Turistas - 8
#5. Van Wilder 2 - The Downfall of Mankind - 3.7

At 7:44 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Has Deja Vu made back Denzel's salary yet?

At 7:47 AM, Blogger Riddley Walker said...

I wonder how The Nativity Story would test on an audience of atheists?

Just wonderin'... ;-)

At 11:03 AM, Blogger Scott the Reader said...

Early official estimates:

Happy Feet $17 million
Casino Royale $15.1 million
Deja Vu $11 million
The Nativity $8 million
Turistas $3.5 million
Van Wilder 2 $2.3 million

I don't think The Nativity is the huge success that it going to lead to a flood of religious-themed films, though it isn't really a bomb either.

At 9:04 PM, Blogger Peter said...

I guess the Christian element doesn't like sloshing through inclement weater. C'mon guys, get with the program. It's winter, JC is on the way. Entourage people.

The same cannot be said for Happy Feet'ers.

The Nativity folks are moaning about bad weather in the heartland as the culprit for low box office.


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