Weekend Boxoffice #8
Holiday time is coming, and studios are trying to cash in.
HAPPY FEET (3804 screens). On the one hand, it doesn't seem they are selling this very well; it looks very childish, and it's hard to imagine boys being all that interested in it. On the other hand, penguins are still hot, it's directed by Babe director George Miller so it's probably good, and there is holiday family money to be made. Call it $20 million opening weekend, and it'll probably hang out for a while if it's any good.
CASINO ROYALE (3434 screens). Daniel Craig doesn't really do anything for me, but it looks like they are trying to make things a little grittier and different, and I think that'll help this franchise; I think people are getting a little tired of the same old Bond stuff. At the same time, a lot of this will probably be the same old Bond stuff that they want anyway. Call it $36.3 million.
LET'S GO TO PRISON (1495 screens). Also known as "Let's Rent This On Video". Hard to imagine that Dax Shepard or Will Arnett are going to bring in big crowds for what looks like a lot of standard don't-drop-the-soap jokes. Call it $4.4 million.
Top 3:
Casino Royale $36.3
Borat $21.7
Happy Feet $20.0
Your guess?
posted by Scott the Reader @ 5:18 PM
12 Comments:
Happy Feet - 41.5 Million
Bond - 36 million
Prison - 4 million
Borat will probably take another 18-20 million.
You guys really think Happy Feet will beat out Bond this week? No way, especially since CR has been getting great reviews. Bond takes it with $39 million. HF will settle for second with $29 million. Borat will drop to the mid-teens.
Fast Food Nation opens this weekend too. I really want to see that one.
You know what, I suck at this game so I'm not going to make any specific predictions, but I'll be plenty general.
Casino Royal will take the top spot because even though Happy Feet is for kids, it looks way too juvenile. Most kids don't want to be placated. It doesn't look to have a really solid plot like the Pixar flicks that have done so well in the past.
Borat's word of mouth will definitely keep it in play, but most people who wanted to see it have already seen it.
Let's Go to Prison will bomb hard. Who the hell is their target audience? Do we really want to watch a slapstick comedy about loss of freedom and ass rape?
Daniel Craig didn't do it for me, either... that is, until the trailers came out.
Now I understand why they went with a bad-ass serious bond instead of a pretty one. This is the first Bond movie I've actually wanted to see in many years. Surely I'm not alone. CR is the only thing opening really wide for grown-ups this week... I'm with Shawn.
Casino Royale - $38 M
Happy Feet - $21 M
Borat - $16 M
Prison - $7 M
Really stoked to see the new Bond, I haven't wanted to see a Bond flick in years. The wife wants to see Happy Feet, and although I still haven't seen The Departed, Borat, Babel or The Prestige, that will most likely be the next outing.
I saw Casino Royale last night and if the demographics of the one cinema I was in indicated anything it is this: Bond will be a smash this weekend.
Casino Royale: 45 million
Happy Feet: 38 million
Borat: 20 million
Happy Feet made an estimated $11 million on Friday, so apparently I'm very, very wrong.
Also, Fast Food Nation is completely tanking in limited release; it only averaged $400 a screen on Friday. It got some good reviews (and some bad), but if you want to see it, see it soon, because it's going to be gone very quickly.
Well, it's gonna be VERY CLOSE. Both are estimated to hit the 40s (Bond made more on friday but Happy Feet will do better over the weekend (kids, families, etc.). It's looking like:
Bond - 40-43 Mil
Happy - 39-43
Damn! Nice numbers for both, whoever wins.
Oh, Let's Go To Prison is estimated to make 2 mil.
Casino Royale is a pretty damn solid flick, caught it last night, and it delivers. And not delivers like the last series of Bond films which delivered headaches and explosions galore. Craig's the real deal.
For what it's worth, I'm a HUGE Will Arnett fan, and even though I didn't expect Let's Go To Prison to make any coin whatsoever, I'm still disappointed.
And I agree with Emily that Fast Food Nation looks great, but I'm an unabashed Linklater lover. Too bad that one's not doing as well, either. I should catch it soon before it leaves
HAPPY FEET will do boffo biz mainly cuz it's a holiday week (Thanksgiving break runs a full week here) and there islittle in the way of kid-friendly fare at the multiplex. My own kids (3 boys and a girl rnaging from 12- down to 4) are as a group very excited and eager to see it).
CASINO ROYALE will do well as there is no real competition for the action crowd demographic. Oldest son saw it and liked it a lot, but said "it seemed longer than it needed to be...". When you have twelve year olds nailing this as a problem, then it's a problem.
I think BORAT will do some decent biz, but I think it's made its nut, so to speak, and won;t have the legs to remain a major BO player for mouch longer (and like many I still have no real interest in it...)
LET'S GO TO PRISON? Uh, Let's not.
APOCALYPSE NOW is showing in a special showing at a local place this week. I may paint my face green and go see a real movie for a change....
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Sunday studio estimates:
Happy Feet $42.3
Casino Royale $40.6
Borat $14.3
Let's Go To Prison $2.1
I didn't know about Happy Feet until Elijah Wood showed up with a couple of penguins on the Today Show. I must admit, now I want to see it. (Ducks in shame.)
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