My Two Cents On The Whole Film Slump Thing

John August has a good post this week, about how silly newspaper reports are being about the supposed film slump, because the numbers they are using, compared to last year, really aren't off much at all. And he's right, particularly about the idea that it all can't just be blamed on "bad movies".

I think there is a slump, and I think it's little more subtle.

Movie prices are up; I paid $10.50 to see "Proof" in a mediocre theater last weekend. And I winced a little. Because $10.50 isn't cheap, when you are talking a wife, and refreshments, and the long walk from the parking lot. Meanwhile, other entertainment prices are holding steady. A little comparison shopping can find you most CDs for $11.99 and under, while DVDs are getting positively cheap, with Blockbuster selling used-but-perfectly-good DVDs 3 for $25.

In other words, I could have 3 DVDs for less than me and the wife paid to see "Proof" last weekend.

Meanwhile, the economy is getting tighter, and rising gas prices are just going to make it worse. People just don't have the casual disposable income to throw away any more. So deciding to go see a movie has become even more of a critical choice about where more of one's entertainment dollar is going.

Because of this, the line is being raised. The "line" is what a movie needs to be better than, to justify your deciding to get into a car and drop 30 bucks at the theater. The line is what determines if you head home after eating out and watch reruns of "Amazing Race", rather than do the parking spot hunt at the local multiplex.

It's not the bad movies that are hurting Hollywood. It's the average stuff, that adults used to go see, but now just don't have enough need-to-see vs. how-much-it-will-cost and it's-such-a-hassle. It's why Just Like Heaven isn't packing them in; who the hell needs to pay $10.50 to see that in a theater? Wouldn't you rather have that CD you were thinking about instead?

The line. When I was a theater manager, I used to see 150 movies a year, because most of them I didn't have to pay for. But when you do, you start thinking about quality, about whether it is worth the money, the time, the hassle. And I LOVE movie theaters. But I've been to see only 4 movies in the past three months.

Because there just aren't enough movies out there that really grab my balls and feel worth it any more.

Movie studios make movies geared toward young people because the 16-24 year old's line is a lot lower. They can churn out a mediocre horror film, dumb comedy or an action tale, and even though it isn't very good, chances are it'll still bring in the cash. Because most kids don't read reviews, and because dumb fun films are still fun.

But movies for grownups are just having a bigger and bigger downside. When you really have to nail it to get the crowds in? That's a big risk. So they throw money at the visuals, or base it on a known property (TV/book/previous film), and do whatever they can to make people want to see it even if it isn't a great movie. Even though, at the end of the day, the surest way to bring in crowds is to actually make a good movie, no one is confident enough of doing that to try nearly enough. Because if you fall a little short, you have "Cinderella Man", which at the end of the day is going to struggle to make back its cost.

The irony is that the over-40 audience is hungry for good films, which explains why "March of the Penguins" is making so much money this year, and "My Big Fat Greek Wedding" clicked so hard a few years ago. My dad complained to me a few weeks ago that there was nothing in theaters that he wanted to see -- and he likes going to see movies.

There's a zillion factors all having a little bit of impact, from high-def TVs recreating the movie experience at home, to the sense that the whole movie-going experience just isn't as special as it once was. DVDs are cool, and they don't take long to show up at the video store, and you can sit on your couch and watch them, with a beer and your balls out.

But people are still going to want to go out to the movies, and what Hollywood needs to realize is that the best way to do it is not to play it safe, but to make the kind of interesting, well-written, well-acted, intelligent movies for grown-ups that they used to make. A good example (hopefully) is the upcoming "North Country", which I think if it gets decent reviews will make some good money, because people want to see movies like that. "Good Night and Good Luck" looks good, and I hope that clicks too. "Jarhead" is on my shortlist, and "Elizabethtown".

But I'm tired of leafing through the newspaper, and trying to interest my wife in a movie, and seeing how underwhelmed she is about most of the stuff out there, and realizing that I am too. The line has gotten higher for us, and for a lot of other people too, and mediocre just doesn't do it any more.