Weekend Boxoffice #7
As the weather gets colder, the movies start getting better, in theory, though there are a few clunkers this week.
Borat is tripling its screen count, to 2566. Stranger Than Fiction is opening up on 2264, and getting solid reviews.
A Good Year breaks out on 2066 screens, though it looks formulaic and sappy, while Russell Crowe, as good of an actor as he is, seems wrong in it. The Return is opening up on 1986 screens, but I have no idea what the hook of this horror/thriller is, so I guess the whole box office rests on Sarah Michelle Gellar.
Harsh Times is opening on 956, though it's hard to imagine that movie making much money, despite the advertising; the young white male audience it seems aimed at can't be all that excited about it, can they?
My predictions:
Borat $29.8 million
Stranger Than Fiction $14.7 million
The Return $11.6 million
A Good Year $6.9 million
Harsh Times $4.7 million
Yours?
posted by Scott the Reader @ 12:56 PM
8 Comments:
A Will Ferrell with good reviews opening at less than $20 mil? Seems unlikely to me.
Well, it's clearly not the usual Will Ferrell movie. I don't think his fans will be racing out to see it opening weekend, though it should linger for a while.
The other day I overheard a Columbia Pictures executive refer to the movie as non-mainstream. So at least in-house they don't seem to expect it to post typical Will Ferrell-like numbers.
My prediction is 17 million for the weekend, slightly less than 50 million overall.
Too late to throw my numbers in for this week, but I'll pat myself on the back for calling Borat last week (I said it'd do 21 and come in 1st).
Here's what this week is looking like:
Borat - 25 million
Fiction - 14-15 Million
The Return (it looks like The freakin' Grudge 2, which already disappointed) - 5 Milliom (BOMB)
Babel - 5 Million
Good Year - 4 million
I haven't looked at the preliminary numbers yet so here's my prediction about Borat: 30 million or more. Why? Because every teenager I interacted with this week told me they were going to see it this weekend.
I was at my guitar teacher's house yesterday and he asked me if he could take his 12-year-old son to see Borat. In front of the son, I said, "No way. I'm not even letting my mom see it." The 12-year-old pouted and glared at me.
I saw Stranger Than Fiction and enjoyed it, but it seemed to be missing something - not a big something, but I didn't leave the theater totally satisfied like I did when I saw Eternal Sunshine, or Amelie, or even the 40-year-old Virgin. I can't put my finger on it.
Official Weekend Estimates released today:
Borat $29 million
Stranger Than Fiction $14.1
The Return $4.8
A Good Year $3.7
Harsh Times $1.8
So I was close on the first two, but the other three tanked worse than I though they would. I guess even a Sarah Michelle Gellar horror movie needs some sort of a hook.
Your first two were scary close though Scott...impressive.
Great fun on Sunday. Thanks for the invite. So nice to meet Scribosphere peeps and your darling wife.
Scribe
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