ALLIGATORS IN A HELICOPTER

a pro script reader ponders movies, reading, writing and the occasional personal flashback

Thursday, September 28, 2006

Weekend Boxoffice Prediction?

I may make this a weekly feature of this site, because pondering future box office beats a sharp stick in the eye.

Three movies are opening wide tomorrow:
Open Season (on 3833 screens)
The Guardian (on 3241 screens)
School For Scoundrels (3004 screens)

Plus there's one major holdover, Jackass Number Two, on 3063 screens.

All you need to do is predict (in the comments section, naturally) how much these four movies will make this weekend. Closest (determined by total difference of your four predictions to the actual official gross reported on Monday) wins kudos, bragging rights, and the ability to dance around your apartment in your underwear for an actual reason.

My picks:
Open Season $18.9 million
Jackass 2 $13.7 million
School For Scoundrels $10.6 million
The Guardian $9.3 million

Contest closes at 3 PM west coast time on Friday.

Go.

18 Comments:

At 4:03 PM, Anonymous danny said...

Open Season: $25.5 Million
The Guardian: $16.9 Million
Jackass 2: $11.5 Million
School for Scoundrels: a dollar. Just kidding-- $11.1 Million.

 
At 5:20 PM, Blogger Shawna said...

The Guardian: $18 million
Open Season: $16.5 million
Jackass 2: $9.5 million
School for Scoundrels: $9 million

 
At 7:06 PM, Blogger wcmartell said...

I believe GUARDIAN will end up being a flop, just based on the poster.

It's a "star" poster rather than a story poster.... except I don't think either of those guys are really stars. Costner lost it, Kutcher hasn't found it, yet.

Now we're getting teh TV adverts that have all of the critics quotes (with critic's names in letters so small you can't read them) - but again... nothing really about the *story*. That makes me think the story doesn't work. Now, I may be wrong about that, but that's the vibe I get from the adverts.

- Bill

 
At 8:07 PM, Anonymous Blair said...

Geez... I'm bad at this... but;

Open Season: $19.1 Million
School For Scoundrels: $13.5 Million
Jackass 2: $11.3 Million
The Guardian: $10 Million

I'm bad at "Price Is Right" too.

"That grill is $798 retail? BULL!"

 
At 8:49 PM, Blogger Patrick J. Rodio said...

Open Season - 17 Million
Jackass II - 12.5 Million
School 4 Scoundrels - 11 Million
The Guardian - 10 million

 
At 10:22 PM, Blogger Peter said...

I don't know what the final numbers will be but Open Season will open huge and grow. I might be off on the numbers but this one will have legs.

I'm with Bill - The Guardian will not do well - considering the promo and advert spinning maybe too much. If word of mouth is good maybe a salvage operation. I don't think AK has that big of an opening draw and KC may not be enough. Lots of screens will help first weekeend's numbers - but let's see what week two will tell.

So here's what I think about numbers:

Open Season: $ 30. mill+
The Guardian: $ 14. mill
Jackass 2: $ 12. mill
School For Scoundrels: $ 10. mill

 
At 11:22 PM, Blogger Chesher Cat said...

I have no idea...

Open Season: $18 Million
School For Scoundrels: $12 Million
Jackass 2: $10 Million
The Guardian: $9.5 Million

 
At 7:16 AM, Blogger MaryAn Batchellor said...

I don't know what number to put on it, but I'm thinking Guardian will be under 9 million.

 
At 8:31 AM, Blogger Emily Blake said...

I think you guys are discounting one thing: teenage girls. One thing I've learned from teaching high school: All teenage girls - black, white, Hispanic, whatever - love Ashton Kutcher, Josh Hartnett and Wentworth Miller.

They'll go see the movie just to see Ashton play the hero. The girls won't let their boyfriends take them to Jackass, but maybe School for Scoundrels because they love Napoleon Dynamite.

So,

Open Season $19 mill
School for Scoundrels $17.5 mill
Jackass 2 $12 mill
The Guardian $11 mill

 
At 8:52 AM, Blogger Spanish Prisoner said...

I'm really bad at this. I always want the strangest movies to get boxoffice crown. Like I wished for DePalma's Black Dahlia to make $25Million. I even believed it had a chance.

Open Season: $21 Million
The Guardian: $13.5 Million
School For Scoundrels: $11 Million
Jackass 2: $9 Million

 
At 10:16 AM, Anonymous Joe Unidos said...

I'm not going to mess around with decimals:

School For Scoundrels $17 million
Open Season $16 million
Jackass 2 $12 million
The Guardian $6 million

The only sure bet is "The Guardian" performing as poorly as a Costner/Kutcher Coast Guard movie should.

 
At 2:56 PM, Blogger Joshua James said...

I guess I'm the only one who thinks Jackass will stay number one - right now, it's the only movie I know of with positive word of mouth, at least, positive among those that know they like that kind of movie.

 
At 6:26 PM, Blogger Shawna said...

I came closest, particulary since I nailed Guardian at $18 (ok, it really made 17.6). My prediction for Open Season was wishful thinking mostly.

Then again, I was biased to hope Guardian would come in at #1 -- sister works at Contrafilm, which produced the movie for Disney.

 
At 10:07 PM, Blogger Peter said...

Okay - a little optimistic on OS

BUT the order of finishers was correct - style points

AND overall Box Office Gross - Mine 66 m vs actual of 64 m (rounded up) was within the margin of error.

Subject of course, to independent rationalization.

 
At 10:26 PM, Blogger Scott the Reader said...

I don't know. Danny had the order right, and was within 3 mill on all of them.

Waiting for the official numbers.

 
At 4:18 PM, Blogger Scott the Reader said...

Final weekend numbers:

Open Season $23.6
The Guardian $18.0
Jackass 2 $14.6
School For Scoundrels $8.9

Got to give it to Danny, though kudos to Shawna for picking Guardian and School For Scandals just about dead-solid perfect.

I'm kind of shocked The Guardian made that much, particuarly given that clunky title, which is sort of a bad amalgham of The Bodyuard and the Coast Guard (while the movie seems to be about a team of guys, or at least Kevin and Ashton, so the referring-to-one guy title feels off).

But I guess there's a thirst out there for real-life hero movies in these troubled times.

 
At 9:04 PM, Anonymous danny said...

A ha! Yes!

Finally, after all these years, the money is mine, I won the money, the money is mine.

--Or whatever it is the old man says in Vegas Vacation.


So I talked to my parents this weekend, and they tried to go see The Guardian on Friday night, but it was SOLD OUT. Which is pretty crazy, b/c the theater in their small town sells out maybe once a year.

My dad said it's those damn teenage girls swooning for Ashton Kutcher.

 
At 10:21 PM, Blogger Scott the Reader said...

It seems like maybe it's a small town kind of movie.

Us bigtown folks know better. Or maybe we're just jaded.

 

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