Weekend Boxoffice Prediction?
I may make this a weekly feature of this site, because pondering future box office beats a sharp stick in the eye.
Three movies are opening wide tomorrow:
Open Season (on 3833 screens)
The Guardian (on 3241 screens)
School For Scoundrels (3004 screens)
Plus there's one major holdover, Jackass Number Two, on 3063 screens.
All you need to do is predict (in the comments section, naturally) how much these four movies will make this weekend. Closest (determined by total difference of your four predictions to the actual official gross reported on Monday) wins kudos, bragging rights, and the ability to dance around your apartment in your underwear for an actual reason.
My picks:
Open Season $18.9 million
Jackass 2 $13.7 million
School For Scoundrels $10.6 million
The Guardian $9.3 million
Contest closes at 3 PM west coast time on Friday.
Go.
posted by Scott the Reader @ 1:19 PM
15 Comments:
Open Season: $25.5 Million
The Guardian: $16.9 Million
Jackass 2: $11.5 Million
School for Scoundrels: a dollar. Just kidding-- $11.1 Million.
The Guardian: $18 million
Open Season: $16.5 million
Jackass 2: $9.5 million
School for Scoundrels: $9 million
I believe GUARDIAN will end up being a flop, just based on the poster.
It's a "star" poster rather than a story poster.... except I don't think either of those guys are really stars. Costner lost it, Kutcher hasn't found it, yet.
Now we're getting teh TV adverts that have all of the critics quotes (with critic's names in letters so small you can't read them) - but again... nothing really about the *story*. That makes me think the story doesn't work. Now, I may be wrong about that, but that's the vibe I get from the adverts.
- Bill
Geez... I'm bad at this... but;
Open Season: $19.1 Million
School For Scoundrels: $13.5 Million
Jackass 2: $11.3 Million
The Guardian: $10 Million
I'm bad at "Price Is Right" too.
"That grill is $798 retail? BULL!"
Open Season - 17 Million
Jackass II - 12.5 Million
School 4 Scoundrels - 11 Million
The Guardian - 10 million
I have no idea...
Open Season: $18 Million
School For Scoundrels: $12 Million
Jackass 2: $10 Million
The Guardian: $9.5 Million
I don't know what number to put on it, but I'm thinking Guardian will be under 9 million.
I think you guys are discounting one thing: teenage girls. One thing I've learned from teaching high school: All teenage girls - black, white, Hispanic, whatever - love Ashton Kutcher, Josh Hartnett and Wentworth Miller.
They'll go see the movie just to see Ashton play the hero. The girls won't let their boyfriends take them to Jackass, but maybe School for Scoundrels because they love Napoleon Dynamite.
So,
Open Season $19 mill
School for Scoundrels $17.5 mill
Jackass 2 $12 mill
The Guardian $11 mill
I'm really bad at this. I always want the strangest movies to get boxoffice crown. Like I wished for DePalma's Black Dahlia to make $25Million. I even believed it had a chance.
Open Season: $21 Million
The Guardian: $13.5 Million
School For Scoundrels: $11 Million
Jackass 2: $9 Million
I'm not going to mess around with decimals:
School For Scoundrels $17 million
Open Season $16 million
Jackass 2 $12 million
The Guardian $6 million
The only sure bet is "The Guardian" performing as poorly as a Costner/Kutcher Coast Guard movie should.
I came closest, particulary since I nailed Guardian at $18 (ok, it really made 17.6). My prediction for Open Season was wishful thinking mostly.
Then again, I was biased to hope Guardian would come in at #1 -- sister works at Contrafilm, which produced the movie for Disney.
I don't know. Danny had the order right, and was within 3 mill on all of them.
Waiting for the official numbers.
Final weekend numbers:
Open Season $23.6
The Guardian $18.0
Jackass 2 $14.6
School For Scoundrels $8.9
Got to give it to Danny, though kudos to Shawna for picking Guardian and School For Scandals just about dead-solid perfect.
I'm kind of shocked The Guardian made that much, particuarly given that clunky title, which is sort of a bad amalgham of The Bodyuard and the Coast Guard (while the movie seems to be about a team of guys, or at least Kevin and Ashton, so the referring-to-one guy title feels off).
But I guess there's a thirst out there for real-life hero movies in these troubled times.
A ha! Yes!
Finally, after all these years, the money is mine, I won the money, the money is mine.
--Or whatever it is the old man says in Vegas Vacation.
So I talked to my parents this weekend, and they tried to go see The Guardian on Friday night, but it was SOLD OUT. Which is pretty crazy, b/c the theater in their small town sells out maybe once a year.
My dad said it's those damn teenage girls swooning for Ashton Kutcher.
It seems like maybe it's a small town kind of movie.
Us bigtown folks know better. Or maybe we're just jaded.
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